(no subject)

[malsperanza]

I continue to think that Palin is a sideshow, a bit of theatrical distraction from the walking disaster that is John McCain, but I am disgusted by the arguments being offered in defense of her astonishing ignorance. Gaffes? Nervousness? Couric was tricksy? Gwen Ifil is biased? (Because she's black, and/or because she wants to write a book about Obama and might make money from it--something I guess no other debate moderator could do.)

For a long time now the GOP has been trying to win elections by disenfranchising voters, fiddling with the voting machines, throwing out registrations. The Dems have done it too (hey, I grew up in Chicago in the 1960s), but it is policy in the Repuglican Party. No, it's dogma.

The Republican Party had better clean up its act or eventually it will go the way of the Whigs. I can imagine that it might be replaced by some kind of Libertarian party. For far too long it has treated the US structure of government as a system to be gamed, and has insulted both the public and the offices by promoting patently unfit candidates. In the process it has twice gutted the economy. It has lost all claim to probity. Eisenhower would be appalled.


ETA, Oct. 17:

Interesting article on the rise of populist movements in hard times:

http://thephoenix.com/Boston/News/69951-Lou-Dobbs-in-2012/

Aside from the snark, this sums up some of my views about a possible future direction: rightwing (working-class and middle-class) populism splitting off from the religious/social-issues rightwing and the big money rightwing, to form a sort of partnership with leftwing populists (Nader voters, libertarians, independents, and people who think a third party actually has a prayer in the US electoral system).

Dunno if it would last more than a couple of election cycles, but it might shake up the GOP, and get it to rethink its values a bit. Rightwing populism in a serious economic crisis can lead fairly easily to nationalist fascism (Franco, Mussolini, Hitler, Peron). So, a scary prospect but also perhaps time.

Comments

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

I wonder if she hasn't been an effective sideshow, though. In the sense that doubts about Palin have been a big part of making soft McCain supporters take a second look at that ticket -- sort of softened them up for the more disturbing evidence of McCain's own instability. She's a place to focus negative feelings and let them pile up without having to confront the McCain Obama choice right away -- they can get there (and are getting there) in time . . .

God she is stupid, though. A gift, truly.

Fun to think about the R's splintering. Where do the evangelicals go, I wonder? Do they sustain their own party, or if you get them off by themselves is it sort of like concentrating enriched uranium?

I suspect there will always be a political space that caters to the ressentiment of the conventional and the marginally respectable. It's part of their nature to define themselves as morally superior to all the people who made the fun choices that they, themselves, didn't.

[malsperanza.livejournal.com]

My theory is that the evangelicals now own the GOP and will keep it. They totally pwned the RNC and wrote its platform.

I predict that fiscal conservatives, plutocrats, and a chunk of the white racist vote will migrate from the God's Own Party to a low-tax/states rights/small govt Libertarian party over the next 10-15 years, and that we may see the GOP fade, possibly even abruptly. The Libertarians will also attract a big chunk of the Nader/Ron Paul/Larouche goofball left, at least for a while. The number of people who register as independents has been climbing steadily for years; I think it will spike.

If we are very very lucky, the shift will take a while and we may be able to sustain a big multiterm repair job. Well, it's worth dreaming about anyway.

Palin was meant to firm up soft McCain supporters on the right--and did so. If he tanks, they will blame him for running a goofy campaign. (The fact that the Palin pick was itself goofy will not register.) Soft McCain voters in the center were always, IMO, an iffy number. The Ohio swing Republican is still mainly a Dem--a Reagan Dem, maybe, but a Dem. Without the economy going splat, they might have stuck to McCain rather than vote for the black guy, but if so, then Palin wouldn't bother them either way. (They're mostly men, so the angry Hilary voter swinging to McCain was always a myth.) Which was the gamble the GOP made. Except that Palin managed to consolidate the angry Hilary voters for Obama way better than Hilary has done. Talk about lukewarm. Feh.

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

Yeah, the Rs' activist base is pretty much controlled by the evangenlicals at this point. Confession: I actually worked for a moderate Republican, that extinct species, early in my career. I have a soft spot for them, within limits. Pretty decent folks on a personal level; tolerant, socially progressive, not averse to a mild welfare state, gently melancholy about the pitfalls of utopianism, wittly contemptuous about some of their disagreeable political allies (you should have heard my boss' Gingrich impression), philosophically resigned to their excesses, and in the end, cocky about controlling them. I think they really thought they were using the evangelicals, and the racists, and the Gingrichite populists, until it turned out to be a Goths-and-Romans story; they really didn't know what hit them until it was already half over. It strikes me as a sour comedy, but still a comedy.

I don't know, where will the plutocrats find their next useful idiots? Do you really think the Libertarians will be a significant fragment? They have their own fissions -- half upper middle class fad or affectation, and half Bircher flakiness, and they're maybe just too odd to be a mass movement. It feels like there's something darker out there, and cultural, that's always going to be the heart of the anti-progressives. Latent racists, maybe -- but that seems less and less salient. I worry more about a good old-fashioned authoritarian populism, Cheney- or Giuliani-style, and the plutocrats will think they can ride it and stay in the saddle. But what the hell do I know?

I watched only the last half of the debate tonight -- I read that Biden started out weak, but he seemed very effective when I was watching. Palin struck me as the sort of person who was going to be very effective for a well-defined slice of the electorate, without necessarily impressing anyone else. So I suppose that's OK. I was hoping she would drool, or speak in tongues, or something, though, so I guess I am not immune to dreaming, either.

I hope you're right about Ohio. But I'd like to see a few more points in Obama's column, there. I wish I believed in the basic decency of the American voter, but I'm basically just hoping our luck (and Obama's good judgment) holds on for four more weeks.

[black-dog.livejournal.com]

Um. That was not actually a defense of moderate Republicans, I hope you realize. Sometimes my attempts at extended Gibbon-ian irony fizzle pretty feebly. It's just, I'm astonished by their ability to dissociate themselves in their own heads, from the things they actually do to stay in power. They ended up having their private parts handed to them by the evangelicals, but I don't underestimate their ability to exploit other dangerous and creepy elements. Or at least their willingness to give it a go.

[malsperanza.livejournal.com]

I don't mind defending moderate Republicans, except that I don't think there are any left. (For that matter, Nelson Rockefeller was significantly farther to the left than center-right Bill Clinton. The GOP isn't the only party that needs to recall to mind its core values. Nominating Mr. Clean Outsider Obama instead of the insider party hack Hilary Clinton was an excellent first step.)

[malsperanza.livejournal.com]

I'm basically just hoping our luck (and Obama's good judgment) holds on for four more weeks.

There's a little luck involved, but not much. It was maybe luck that Wall St. crashed in Sept. not December. I'm sure they were trying hard to hold on til after the election.

But we'll win this election with hard campaigning, voter by voter, state by state. Don't count on McCain to make any more gifts to us of wacky ill-considered gestures or maverick terrible decisions. He will be on a short leash from now on, and Palin will be kept away from the press until-- well, I imagine for the rest of her life, actually. Brace for the campaign to go hard negative, very racist, and watch for an attempt at an October Surprise, possibly from those funloving folks in Iran. It's going to be a long 4 weeks, and boots on the ground, not luck, will get us there.

If you're not already, you might consider volunteering for phone banking to VA (which one can do from home with a cell phone). Money is also still needed to keep buying big ad blocs. Obama drove McCain from Michigan last week because McCain's operation is spread thinly over too many states--which is the goal. Make him fight for Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana--states the GOP used to count on blithely. Draw his energy and resources away from Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada. VA and NC are tied in the polls, which is remarkable.

Today's polls show McCain's numbers dropping a little in red states--Texas, Montana, Mississippi, Georgia, West Virginia. Washington State and New Hampshire have gone from light to dark blue, though they may fluctuate quite a bit over the next few weeks. Polls can mislead, and they can be wrong, but the overall trend is good. So be heartened, not anxious, and put in whatever resources you can. This is what democracy looks like. (http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/XmjjbIadA0a/Obama+Campaigns+Ahead+Indiana+North+Carolina/-H7x6Khiz-3/Sasha+Obama)

OK, /preachingtothechoirmode :-)